Thailand reports another daily record of 15 virus deaths, 2,179 cases

[Excel]

Just now, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

There are too many deaths reported today for me to do an EN translation of the details of all of them, and the Thai government doesn't report that data in EN documents... So here are the details they presented in TH:

 

The second column of info indicates male or female. The third column indicates they all were Thais. The fourth column indicates their ages ranging from 37 to 88. The last line of the seventh column indicates the date/time of their deaths. As reported above, 9 of the 15 were from Bangkok, most with some type of preexisting health condition. Thus far this month, the government said about 55% of all COVID deaths in Thailand have been age 60 or older.

 

 

So that means for the month so far 45% are under 60

[RichardColeman]

2 hours ago, rabas said:

 

The rate of increase has possibly reached a plateau.

or limited testing - again

[ourmanflint]

0.0000001 chance that this is plateauing or that this is over

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

With the latest deaths reported today, Thailand's case fatality rate (the share of deaths among all reported COVID cases) has been slowly increasing to now stand at 0.27%. That's 163 deaths out of 59,687 total reported cases.

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/OICDDC/posts/3903745033079394

 

[brewsterbudgen]

Just now, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

With the latest deaths reported today, Thailand's case fatality rate (the share of deaths among all reported COVID cases) has been slowly increasing to now stand at 0.27%. That's 163 deaths out of 59,687 total reported cases.

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/OICDDC/posts/3903745033079394

 

So, negligible really.

[school12]

3 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

The WHO numbers are so low because they have to include countries that don't report accurately. The fatality rate people are concerned about is for the general public, where, for example, in Britain, its 1864 deaths per million.

 

The fatality rate for infecteds is all over the place, its about 10 percent for Mexico.

 

If this epidemic takes off, the fatality rate will certainly increase on a per capita basis.

According to this report actual ifr worldwide is 0.15

 

the available evidence suggests average global IFR of ~0.15% and ~1.5-2.0 billion infections by February 2021 with substantial differences in IFR and in infection spread across continents, countries and locations.

 

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33768536/

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

24 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

So, negligible really.

 

Not if you're one of the 163 who have died thus far, or their friends, families, colleagues... etc etc.. Not to mention there are another 628 COVID patients right now in critical condition in various Thai hospitals. And we're not done yet.

 

Not to mention the many others who will likely survive with various kinds of long-term health problems stemming from their COVID illness.

 

[brewsterbudgen]

Just now, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Not if you're one of the 163 who have died thus far, or their friends, families, colleagues... etc etc.. Not to mention there are another 628 COVID patients right now in critical condition in various Thai hospitals. And we're not done yet.

 

Of course it isn't for those who are personally affected.  But it's still a tiny percentage of infections.  There's a far greater likelihood of dying from something else, especially in Thailand.

[MasterBaker]

what happens just happened, thank you mister PM

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

17 minutes ago, school12 said:

According to this report actual ifr worldwide is 0.15

 

the available evidence suggests average global IFR of ~0.15% and ~1.5-2.0 billion infections by February 2021 with substantial differences in IFR and in infection spread across continents, countries and locations.

 

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33768536/

 

The IFR estimates work of that author, while a respected Stanford University scientist, has been widely challenged and called mistaken by peers in his field. He also at one point predicted the U.S. might have 10,000 COVID deaths. The number now stands at more than 586,000.

 

Also, IFRs are largely a guessing game, because they're based on deaths out of guesses/estimates of all the people who may have been infected by the coronavirus but never became officially tested and reported cases.

 

The Case Fatality Rate, the percent who die out of the official cases, is generally considerably higher, around 2% worldwide last time I looked. But in that regard, Thailand's CFR rate right now remains a lot better than a lot of other countries in the world.

 

The U.S. has a CFR of 1.8%, while the U.K. has a 2.9% CFR. Of course, those ratios also are driven by the volume of COVID cases that get tested for and reported.

[ThailandRyan]

5 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

Of course it isn't for those who are personally affected.  But it's still a tiny percentage of infections.  There's a far greater likelihood of dying from something else, especially in Thailand.

Sorry you feel that Covid is just a blip on the radar, and of little concern.  Enjoy your view.

[ftpjtm]

More COVID cases coming in future figures from my Chonburi neighborhood. 4 positive tests so far, all sent home to crowded houses to "self isolate" until hospital space becomes free. So far over the course of 3 days 1 hospital bed was found for 1 of  the 4. 

 

What concerns me is that with a relatively small outbreak compared to other countries, the medical care system already seems overly stressed. 

 

Graph from the Worldometer projection link predicts that by the middle of May, Thailand will have 110k patients in need of non existent hospital space.

 

Hmm, not sure why I can't post my screenshot of Thailand's hospital resources vs projected demand, but if you visit Worldometer and look at projections it's a scary sight. 

 

[KhaoNiaw]

3 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

Although deaths will continue to climb for a bit, it appears that the epidemic has reached a plateau.

 

[brewsterbudgen]

9 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Sorry you feel that Covid is just a blip on the radar, and of little concern.  Enjoy your view.

 

Of course I'm concerned.  Please don't be flippant.  I just think think the risk of death from Covid is overplayed, probably for good reason as doing so makes people more likely to take preventative measures.

[DavisH]

5 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

 

Of course I'm concerned.  Please don't be flippant.  I just think think the risk of death from Covid is overplayed, probably for good reason as doing so makes people more likely to take preventative measures.

In my opinion its better to manage the risk.....it's not going to be possible to get down to 0 cases a day again for a very long time. They should maage to reduce cases to 100-200 a day or so, but still keep people in work and keep the local economy somewhat functioning and not overstretch the health system. In the meantime, they really need to procure and distribute vaccines at full steam. 

[eeworldwide]

All I can say is  - Thailand is still having it easy in comparison to the Western World. 15 deaths a day, whilst still too many, is so few.
Cases are undoubtedly more than being shared, but the virus is not ripping through the country like Britain or USA or India or Brazil or France was. Let's keep things in perspective.

[ThailandRyan]

11 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

 

Of course I'm concerned.  Please don't be flippant.  I just think think the risk of death from Covid is overplayed, probably for good reason as doing so makes people more likely to take preventative measures.

Thank you for the clarification.  Preventive measures are needed for a great many things.  Covid is one of those things that needs preventive measures, as there is so much that is still unknown and more is being learned everyday.  Being open minded is one thing that people need to be.  Months ago no one understood that asymptomatic infections could infect others like they are doing now, and what we have learned most recently.  True, that most preventive measure fail for a great many things, but the preventive measures being used and put forth here in Thailand did sort of work in the past.  Unfortunately this Government failed to remember the past semi successes they had.  Now that they are going back to what did work you want to criticize those preventive measure.  Thanks for being concerned as you say you are.  The risk of dying is not overplayed as we can see daily, and I know I am greatly concerned for my friends and my family here in Thailand. Enjoy your day.

[2 is 1]

29 minutes ago, ftpjtm said:

What concerns me is that with a relatively small outbreak compared to other countries, the medical care system already seems overly stressed.

Because idiots put everybody in hospital even have little running nose! Home quarantine and huge fine or prison time if brake that one!

[2 is 1]

Every dead is one too many! Covid has been here for over year now. Dead % is small now because doctors know much better how to nurse that one. Problem what every coundry have had/has is that they have enough hospitals "beds" for patients! Covid restrictions are only way to maintain hospitals  capacity on. And Thai goverment policy is to burden hospitals whit patients , who not even belong there!

[brewsterbudgen]

32 minutes ago, DavisH said:

In my opinion its better to manage the risk.....it's not going to be possible to get down to 0 cases a day again for a very long time. They should maage to reduce cases to 100-200 a day or so, but still keep people in work and keep the local economy somewhat functioning and not overstretch the health system. In the meantime, they really need to procure and distribute vaccines at full steam. 

I agree 100%.  It's all about risk management.

[metisdead]

A post providing a graph but no link to the source has been removed. 

 

Please post a link to the actual source of information that is being presented as factual such as tables and graphs.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Full list in EN of all domestic COVID cases reported today by province, divided into regions:

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/nbtworld/posts/10157977106337050

 

[Swimfan]

2 hours ago, Excel said:

So that means for the month so far 45% are under 60

You genius

[HansumFarang]

2 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

As reported above, 9 of the 15 were from Bangkok, most with some type of preexisting health condition. The final column in the charts below indicates what if any preexisting conditions they had. Thus far this month, the government said about 55% of all COVID deaths in Thailand have been age 60 or older.

 

 

Only 55%? That's an surprising statistic. In Western countries, people 60 and over are far more likely to die than those 59 and under.

 

This study reports that 86.2% of covid deaths were people over 65:

 

Quote

Of the 178,568 COVID-19 deaths reported in our six-week sample from a total population of approximately 2.4 billion people, 153,923 deaths (86.2%) were in persons age 65 years or older.

 

https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-020-09826-8

 

 

Having said that, the relative number of Thai deaths is very, very low (66 this month vs 153,923 in the study), so the low number of deaths of elderly Thais may just be a statistical anomaly. Not really enough data to draw conclusions from.

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

10 minutes ago, HansumFarang said:

 

 

Only 55%? That's an astonishing statistic. In Western countries, people 60 and over are far more likely to die than those 59 and under.

 

This study reports that 86.2% of covid deaths were people over 65:

 

https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-020-09826-8

 

Either younger Thais are more susceptible to the new variants, or covid deaths amongst the Thai elderly are being significantly under-reported.

 

Just a few possible explanations:

 

--the current outbreak in Thailand began and mostly spread from Bangkok entertainment venues, where most of the patrons tended to be younger. And, of the younger ones who have died, most have had some kind of potentially contributing preexisting medical condition.

 

--in the U.S. by comparison, a lot of the early spread of COVID occurred among the elderly in nursing home populations. That really hasn't occurred yet in Thailand, which probably has less of a per capita nursing home population and a younger population demographic overall.

 

Among the elderly who have died of COVID in Thailand thus far, at least according to the government accounts, most seem to have been living at home.

 

[Misty]

2 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

The IFR estimates work of that author, while a respected Stanford University scientist, has been widely challenged and called mistaken by peers in his field. He also at one point predicted the U.S. might have 10,000 COVID deaths. The number now stands at more than 586,000.

 

Also, IFRs are largely a guessing game, because they're based on deaths out of guesses/estimates of all the people who may have been infected by the coronavirus but never became officially tested and reported cases.

 

The Case Fatality Rate, the percent who die out of the official cases, is generally considerably higher, around 2% worldwide last time I looked. But in that regard, Thailand's CFR rate right now remains a lot better than a lot of other countries in the world.

 

The U.S. has a CFR of 1.8%, while the U.K. has a 2.9% CFR. Of course, those ratios also are driven by the volume of COVID cases that get tested for and reported.

I wonder what the assumptions the author used in that study for countries like China and India.  China's overall COVID numbers (both infections & deaths) have beggared belief for the past year or more.  And until this new wave in India, some had been suggesting that India may have achieved herd immunity already. 

[HansumFarang]

3 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Just a few possible explanations:

 

--the current outbreak in Thailand began and mostly spread from Bangkok entertainment venues, where most of the patrons tended to be younger. And, of the younger ones who have died, most have had some kind of potentially contributing preexisting medical condition.

 

--in the U.S. by comparison, a lot of the early spread of COVID occurred among the elderly in nursing home populations. That really hasn't occurred yet in Thailand, which probably has less of a per capita nursing home population and a younger population demographic overall.

 

Among the elderly who have died of COVID in Thailand thus far, at least according to the government accounts, most seem to have been living at home.

 

 

 

Yes, all 3 of your reasons could help to explain the difference, well thought out. I edited my post while you were replying, in hindsight I thought that 66 deaths this month was far too small an amount for me to draw any real conclusions from. I'm hoping that we won't get much more data in the way of death statistics.

 

[Excel]

1 hour ago, Swimfan said:

You genius

Nah I had to use a calculator ????

[AlfHuy]

 

 

 

Thai News Reports

 

 

BREAKING: The Minister of Education has just announced that the new academic year for Thai schools will be postponed by two weeks. Schools were due to open in mid-May. They will now open on 1st June 2021 #Thailand

 

 

[hotchilli]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

The Health Ministry also reported 2,179 more daily cases. Thailand for months had suppressed the virus but a new outbreak emerged several weeks ago.

This is making Samut Sakhorn/Songkran look like a blip, they said that was a crisis, now we see the same figures as that every day.